MAILBAG: March 27

	Rodriguez

Q: Even if the Texas Rangers are in contention by the trade deadline, do you think they will trade Ivan Rodriguez to try to bolster their rotation? Or will Tom Hicks shell out the required dinero to keep Pudge a Ranger? -- Jared Bondesson, Augusta, Ga.
PWG -- This will be one of the most interesting dilemmas of the season. If the Rangers' pitching destructs early and they are not in it (which isn't likely), then you might see a huge deal.

One scenario would be Pudge and Kevin Mench to the Baltimore Orioles for Scott Erickson and Sidney Ponson, for instance. Now, Pudge wants to stay in Texas and I think will take less than what would appear to be his market value, but Jeff Moorad is going to drive a hard bargain. Hicks is one of the reigning hard-liners in the NHL, so he may change in baseball, too.

Q: Who is the front-runner for the NL Cy Young? Does Kevin Brown have a chance after his injury from last season? -- Frank Thorold, Ontario, Canada
PWG -- Never underestimate anything Brown or Greg Maddux set out to do. I'll come up with my five, in order, for the Cy Young this weekend, but right now: Brown, Maddux, Javier Vazquez, Roy Oswalt, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, A.J. Burnett and Matt Morris are names that come to mind.

Q: The Florida Marlins have a good core of young pitchers. What do you think of Josh Beckett? Will he have a good rookie year like Kerry Wood did for the Cubs? -- Fran, Revere, Mass.
PWG -- Beckett is awfully inexperienced and at times, in spring training, he has nibbled a little with his fastball. I think he's going to be very good, but right now I'd probably guess that A.J.Burnett and Brad Penny will win more games this year. In the future? Cy Young potential.

Q: What does a mid-market team like the Houston Astros have to do to "get over the hump" and seriously contend for the World Series? Cash cows like the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves have money injected into their teams by wealthy owners -- something the Astros can't do. Is the first round of the playoffs the limit again this year? -- Aakash Parekh, Austin, Texas
PWG -- I think the Astros have the pitching to get there, especially if Carlos Hernandez is as good a three as he looks and Tim Redding is a legit power bridge to Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner. They have never hit in the postseason. Now, they've faced great pitching, but they need Daryle Ward, Lance Berkman and Richard Hidalgo to take pressure off Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio.

Q: Are the Chicago White Sox pitchers really this awful or does the Arizona air affect pitching that much? The sad state of affairs with the pitching staff seems to be all that's keeping the White Sox from winning the AL Central. Do you see them making any moves to improve? -- Mike, Chicago
PWG -- I went to Arizona for the first time in five years and it took me three days to adjust to watching games. Balls fly off bats like they're using aluminum and balls shoot through the infield. Give Dan Wright, Jon Garland and Jon Rauch the benefit of the doubt until they play real baseball.

	Shaw

Q: Has Jeff Shaw really retired? What team would not want all those saves? I've heard he wants to go to a contender. Can any afford him or will he take less to go to the Cincinnati Reds? -- Joe Genung, Reno, Nev.
PWG -- Jeff Shaw is a devout family man and isn't going to leave his children unless he's overwhelmed. Heck, he could have made $6 million in L.A.

Q: I see in ESPN The Magazine you picked the New York Mets to win the NL East, yet on ESPN Insider you picked the Atlanta Braves and didn't even pick the Mets for the wild card. Why the sudden change of heart? As a Mets fan I demand a recount. -- Richard Lutz, Livingston, N.J.
PWG -- The magazine listing was rating teams going into spring training. The ESPN Insider lists aren't even final, because I have to watch the last week. Check my web site this weekend.

Q: Has there ever been a rookie class with four third basemen as highly regarded as Hank Blalock, Morgan Ensberg, Sean Burroughs and Eric Hinske? And what do you expect statistically from them in 2002? -- Mike Anderson, New York
PWG -- Great question. Here we've been complaining about third basemen the last few years, and here's a nice class. Wild guess: Blalock .302/22/104; Ensberg .263/24/80; Burroughs .320/16/76; Hinske .275/22/76. Remember, we've also got David Kelton coming to the Cubs, Mark Teixeira to the Rangers, Drew Henson to the Yankees and Joe Crede to the White Sox.

Q: Who will win this year's Gold Glove in the American League at second base since Roberto Alomar is in the National League? I see a couple of possibilities in Luis Rivas and Jerry Hairston. -- Chris Kowalczyk, Plymouth, Minn.
PWG -- I think Rivas probably opens as the favorite. And I agree with the Twins' players who believe Cristian Guzman and Rivas are the best DP combination in the league right now (unless Omar Vizquel and John McDonald get on the field together). Alex Rodriguez and Michael Young are very good, Nomar Garciaparra and Rey Sanchez will be good as well, and so will Carlos Guillen and Bret Boone.

Q: I'm a die-hard Orioles fan and have suffered over the years. I'm not so foolish to think the Orioles can contend this year, but the pitching has been fantastic and they have the best record in the AL this spring. Is there reason to be optimistic? -- Bill Muhlenfeld, Bel Air, Md.
PWG -- The Orioles have to get the young pitching situated, then trade some of the veterans for young positional players. What I don't see are any exceptional players.

Q: Ozzie Smith was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. When it comes to fielding, Omar Vizquel is probably the same caliber as the Wizard of Oz. Their batting statistics are also similar; in fact, Vizquel is better in quite a few categories. Why does no one consider Vizquel a future Hall of Famer? He is arguably the best defensive shortstop ever. -- Tim Rychel, Ohio
PWG -- This is a debate that ran for days on the superb Baseball Immortals site administered by Lee Sinins (a site worth logging on to every day). Ozzie became a better offensive player the longer he played. If Omar were to have two or three outstanding seasons in succession, perhaps he would get into the consideration category. Hall consideration is a funny thing. Ask Ted Simmons.

	Anderson

Q: What are the Detroit Tigers' chances of being a serious factor in the AL Central? -- Brad Lape, State College, Pa.
PWG -- Slim, but they know that. They need some breaks, they need Jeff Weaver to blossom into a No. 1 starter, they need Matt Anderson to get healthy and be a No.1A closer and they need Jose Lima and some other pitchers to win.

Q: I know that players in the lineup can change defensive positions during the game. How about the DH spot? Specifically, could Jason Giambi at first base switch with Nick Johnson at DH late in a game for defense? -- Ernie Arvan, Port Chester, N.Y
PWG -- No. If the DH goes into the field, you lose the DH and the pitcher must bat in that spot in the order.

Q: There has been lots of talk about the Kansas City Royals trading Mike Sweeney. If they do, where do you see him going? Could the Braves or Dodgers get into the mix? -- Tyler Smith, Fitzgerald, Ga.
PWG -- David Glass HAS to do everything possible to keep Sweeney. If he doesn't and the Royals trade him in July, the franchise will have serious credibility problems -- worse than they have now. I don't think Atlanta can add that payroll. The Dodgers have to see how Eric Karros plays out and if he recovers from back problems. Oakland, Baltimore, Florida.