By now, we have all seen the obligatory TV shots of bats, uniforms and equipment bags being loaded onto vans driving south, and soon there will be the long-tossing and pitchers covering first and either palm trees or saguaro cactus. Thankfully, spring training comes this week, that warm distraction from arbitration hearings, arrests in the NBA and six feet of snow.

Of all the spring story lines, the most significant probably will be the new strike zone. Oh sure, oh sure, we all remember the last two times the strike zone was going to be expanded to the rule book definition, and how the experiment never got north of the Weeki Wachee Mermaid Show. But those came in the days when the league offices directed the umpires with separate rules and ineffectual power. This time around, the wharf rat union mentality has given way to cooperation and the power is centralized in the hands of Sandy Alderson, who is not giving in on the issue.

"They say they want to call the strike three ball-widths above the belt," says one pitching coach. "That would be a radical change. But if they even bring it to one ball-width above the belt, or just move the top of the strike zone from where it's been -- right at the cup -- to the belt it's going to impact the game. It's going to be difficult for dead lowball hitters, or hitters who lock their eyes and line of vision on one plane; changing planes may be very difficult for certain hitters. It could hurt hitters who have a lot of movement in their swings, like Johnny Damon or Troy O'Leary.

"As for pitchers, it not only will help those who can ride the high fastball -- like Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Scott Elarton -- but it could really benefit those pitchers who can move the ball around the quadrants of the strike zone and who can now really alter hitters' sightlines. Greg Maddux and Rick Reed could be helped, and it's almost ridiculous to think what Pedro Martinez could do with the high strike. How about an 0.90 ERA?"

Another pitching coach suggested a look at the best and worst hitters against the top groundball and flyball pitchers. "That might give us some idea of who could be impacted," says the coach. "Those hitters who really struggle against the highball pitchers could have some problems." Especially when the top 10 lists of most extreme flyball ratios in each league include some very good pitchers.

With the help of ESPN baseball researcher/savant Jeff Bennett and the Elias Sports Bureau's Rob Tracy, that's precisely what we've done. The following tables list the pitchers with the highest groundball ratios and the highest flyball ratios (among starting pitchers) in each league, and then list the best and worst hitters against those pitchers.

AL extreme groundball/flyball pitchers
AL top groundball P's	Ratio	AL top flyball P's	Ratio
Schoeneweis, Ana.	2.17	Helling, Tex.	.52
Hudson, Oak.	2.08	Hernandez, N.Y.	.66
Lopez, Tam.	1.68	Milton, Min.	.66
Pettitte, N.Y.	1.61	Abbott, Sea.	.78
Finley, Cle.	1.53	Appier, Oak.	.81
Heredia, Oak.	1.49	Nomo, Det.	.81
Rogers, Tex.	1.48	Clemens, N.Y.	1.00
Moehler, Det.	1.43	Ponson, Bal.	1.00
Sirotka, Chi.	1.42	Escobar, Tor.	1.00
Mussina, Bal.	1.41	Loaiza, Tor.	1.02

One wonders about the adjustment Oakland's potential superstar Eric Chavez will have to make. Check the numbers. He batted .439 with an OPS of 1.402 against the best sinkerballs, but had the worst average in the American League against the flyball pitchers. One wonders about Derek Bell, who appeared in the leaders vs. groundball pitchers and trailers among the flyballers. There are questions about lowball hitters like John Olerud, Ben Grieve, Brian Daubach, Joe Randa, Todd Zeile, Eric Karros, Pokey Reese, Mike Lowell. Or whether killer lowball hitters like Andres Galarraga, Jermaine Dye, Travis Fryman, Paul O'Neill and Luis Gonzalez might have some of their numbers muted. Or hitters that depend on putting the ball on the ground, like Rafael Furcal, Eric Young, Kenny Lofton and Tony Womack.

Then there are players who were on the bottom list against both the groundballers and flyballers -- O'Leary, David Bell, Junior Cruz. "They might be examples of hitters who have grooved swings or get locked in to one area," says one pitching coach. "They might be affected by having to move their sightlines up and down. The strike zone has been so small, down and out over the plate, that there have been a lot of hitters who have been able to sit and look in one area. If that gets changed, we're going to see a lot of hitters flushed out."

The Red Sox believe that if Hideo Nomo can get high strikes called, he could be much tougher this year. "He's always been a high, straight fastball/forkball pitcher, but he doesn't get the high strikes too often," says one AL scout. Nomo, in fact, threw only 54 percent first-pitch strikes last season, a poor percentage. "If he gets those strikes and hitters have to change their sight plane," says the scout, "Nomo will be helped, immensely." The same goes for Kevin Appier, Rick Helling, El Duque Hernandez and Woody Williams.

As you peruse the lists, you can see that it doesn't matter what strike zone Jeff Bagwell and Sean Casey are hitting in. They hit the best. Ditto Kansas City's Mark Quinn. Notice that Nomar Garciaparra, who is a good highball hitter, still maintained a .406 average against the best groundball pitchers, although his damage (his OPS is down 100 points) is slightly lessened. Garciaparra, Erstad, Edgar Martinez and Todd Helton just might be helped by the bigger strike zone.

An eye on spring
With all that digested, here are the rest of the top story lines of spring training.

2. Sammy Sosa. Will the Cubs sign him long-term or are they phasing him out as they try to move from being lovable to being good? Will that be a distraction? Will they trade him, and when? Kerry Wood and Corey Patterson may be the core storylines, but Sammy is Sammy.

3. Mark McGwire and Rick Ankiel. McGwire's knee and Ankiel's control will be closely monitored, although the Cardinals wish everyone would go away and come back to see them on Opening Day.

4. David Cone. As if there aren't enough Red Sox-Yankee themes this year -- Clemens, Carl Everett, Mike Mussina -- the attempted redemption of a career in Boston in a year when the Sox play three series in The Stadium could be a recurring theme in a season series straight from the creative mind of David O. Kelley.

5. Bryce Florie's courageous comeback. Come to think of it, this whole Red Sox team may be out of Ally McBeal; we all know that the last 25 years of ownership have been out of The Practice.

6. Chuck Knoblauch. He recently refused to work out in Tampa with a New York Times reporter watching. This is a pivotal year in his career and we'll see whether or not Alfonso Soriano or D'Angelo Jimenez has to step in and play second base.

7. The Texas pitching staff. OK, A-Rod, I-Rod, Rafael Palmeiro, Andres Galarraga and Ken Caminiti will take the Metroplex mind off the embarrassment of the NBA ownership's Penthouse Pet, but who in the world will pitch after Rick Helling and Kenny Rogers? Darren Oliver, Doug Davis ... Tim Crabtree closing? There will be a lot more trade rumors than restaurants in Port Charlotte, beginning with a Ugueth Urbina watch.

8. Cal Ripken's 20th year with the Orioles. And Junior Griffey's second in Cincinnati.

9. The David Wells-Mike Sirotka saga. Reports in Toronto indicate Mike Williams, the A-ball pitcher the Jays got in the deal, has arm problems as well. Ugh.

10. The best trade rumors out of Port St. Lucie concerning the Mets. They came at about 6.3 per 24-hour cycle last year. With needs for a top starter and a left-handed-hitting outfielder, that could be increased this spring. Then there'll be the Sammy Watch.

On the mend
Among the most important storylines each spring are the injuries, the players emerging into breakout seasons and the newcomers. (For the latter two, click over to lists). After McGwire, here are the most significant rehabs and comebacks to watch: