PREVIEW: NATIONAL-CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
South No. 5 seed INDIANA vs. East No. 1 seed MARYLAND | Monday, 9:18 p.m. ET
ATLANTA -- It should be something special Monday night as we crown a new national champion. As for which team will cut down the nets, here's my breakdown of which team has the edge in the game's key matchups:
FRONTCOURT: MARYLAND
Jeffrey Newton was the star of stars for Indiana against Oklahoma, but I still give the edge to Maryland. Coach Gary Williams' Terps feature four inside guys who play aggressively on the baseline: starters Lonny Baxter and Chris Wilcox and super subs Tahj Holden and Ryan Randle. Plus, Byron Mouton is experienced in tough situations.
The depth on the baseline is a plus, as evidenced when Baxter got into foul trouble against Kansas Saturday night. Wilcox was solid against the Jayhawks with 18 points and nine boards, and his high-flying act should be ready for the Hoosiers. Maryland also gets solid minutes off the bench from Randle and Holden (21 points over last two games). Beating the Kansas combo of Drew Gooden and Nick Collison with Baxter playing just 14 minutes says a lot. That's not to take away from Newton, Jared Jeffries and company.
BACKCOURT: MARYLAND
Indiana's backcourt, when healthy, can challenge most. But I love the Terps' tandem of Juan Dixon and Steve Blake, with Drew Nicholas contributing off the bench. Dixon has scored 137 points in five games in the tournament, and that's the best NCAA Tournament stretch I've seen in quite a while. With Indiana guard Tom Coverdale still not at 100 percent due to his sprained ankle, I give the slightest of edges to Maryland. IU's Dane Fife is one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball, and his matchup against Dixon will be great to watch.
DEPTH: EVEN
Indiana's bench outscored Oklahoma's 41-12, which was a big factor in Saturday's upset. Jeffrey Newton contributed big-time with a career-high 19 points while getting Aaron McGhee to pick up his fifth foul. Donald Perry gave the Hoosiers solid guard play with 10 points and several clutch free throws down the stretch in just 11 minutes. Don't forget George Leach blocking shots and A.J. Moye giving an emotional lift. Maryland's strength up front, with Holden and Randle off the bench, gives them toughness. Plus the Terps bring in Nicholas on the perimeter. This is pretty even.
EXPERIENCE: MARYLAND
Having played in the Final Four last year, the Terps still have the edge in winning experience. They came to Atlanta not just thrilled to be here, but wanting to win it all. The Hoosiers can cap their season with glory and fame where they are now; they have to be thrilled with having gotten to the Final Four and the championship game. Maryland, though, wants to win it all.
AND THE WINNER WILL BE...
Maryland has the edge with the inside-outside game. Indiana is certainly going to create problems, shooting better than 70 percent from 3-point range over the last two games. What the Terps have to be careful about is what happened against N.C. State in the ACC semifinals. The Wolfpack beat them by shooting the trifecta, hitting 11 3-pointers. Maryland got a little lackadaisical defending the three.
If Maryland gets passive defending the trifecta Monday night, Indiana can create havoc just as N.C. State did. The Wolfpack were not a dominant team on the interior yet got to the winner's circle. That was a surprising loss for the Terps (of course, they haven't lost since). Maryland has to defend that 3-point line. Indiana has been amazing, hitting all six 3-pointers in the second half to come from behind and beat an aggressive Oklahoma team.
Hoosiers coach Mike Davis has his team relaxed, focused and believing that they can be national champions. But I believe All-American Juan Dixon is not going to allow Maryland to leave without cutting down the nets and taking home the gold trophy.