March 5
ESPN.com's Championship Week coverage

Back in January, nobody would have thought Virginia and Syracuse would be thinking about the bubble entering their respective conference tournaments. Now both teams are under some pressure.

With one win each in their conference tournaments, Virginia and Syracuse will deserve NCAA bids.

On Jan. 27, the Cavaliers were 14-2 entering the Duke game. Many people were thinking the NCAA Tournament was a lock and probably wondered about a top-four seed. Since then, they have gone 3-8.

Entering the Tennessee game on Jan. 19, Jim Boeheim's Orangemen were 16-2 and highly ranked.

Among those 16 wins was a Preseason NIT championship, with victories over Michigan State and Wake Forest. Syracuse also seemed like a lock for an NCAA berth and a high seed. The Orangemen have gone 4-8 in their last 12 games, including a three-game losing skid to close the regular season.

I have read many comments from NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Lee Fowler that the way a team finishes the season will be strongly taken into consideration to see how a team is progressing. Given that statement, Virginia and Syracuse have big-time trouble.

Both teams have their fate in their own hands. They'd better get a win or two in their respective conference tournaments, or it could be party over and a run to the NIT, baby! Some may even argue that these teams need two wins in their conference tournaments to get into the Big Dance. I say that with one win each, they will deserve to make it as one of the top 65 teams in America.

Fowler has said the committee is trying to get the best at-large teams, regardless of conference, after the 31 automatic bids are earned. Syracuse and Virginia can make pretty strong arguments that they belong in that group. But their NCAA fates could be decided by tough first-round games in their conference tournaments.

The Orangemen face Villanova in the first round of the Big East tournament Wednesday (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET). The Wildcats knocked off Syracuse last week. The Cavaliers face N.C. State on Friday (ESPN, 2 p.m. ET). The Wolfpack swept Virginia during the regular season, but it isn't easy to beat a team three times. The Cavs will play with a state of urgency, a frenzy, since N.C. State is basically in the Big Dance.

It looked like Lock City early, but now these two schools may have to wait until Selection Sunday to find out the real story. Now Boeheim and Gillen must endure Maalox time, especially if their teams are bounced in the first round of their respective tournaments.

Stay tuned -- this could get interesting. These clubs are fighting for NCAA Tournament survival.