May 22, 2006

With the draft lottery coming on Tuesday night, there is little doubt that the top choices will be made simply based on potential.

There is no clear cut No. 1 overall pick, no dominators, no coach savers out there. The bottom line is, when you miss the playoffs, you chase that pick. The team that wins the lottery will not get instant contributions from a major factor.

None of these guys are program changers. There are a lot of good players out there, but it will be years before the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay and Tyrus Thomas become impact players. They will not become major names in the pros right away, and it will take time to adjust to the NBA game. Yes, these guys have talent, but none of them have the four-year experience of college and the raw ability needs to be cultivated in the future to reach that potential.

This will be an interesting lottery. Where will Adam Morrison fall in? Can a foreign player or two move up? Which underclassmen made major mistakes by going in early and listening to questionable advice?

The lottery does mean something to teams in it, hoping to move up and get a solid pick to help in the long term. I don't feel this group will have as big an impact in 2006-07. I look at a guy like Marvin Williams last season; the Hawks took him because of potential, potential, potential, passing on a Chris Paul, who ended up as the Rookie of the Year.

Tuesday night will be interesting, my friends. In late June, we will find out which players made good decisions by entering the draft early, and which ones made major mistakes and will turn into basketball vagabonds.

Dick Vitale coached the Pistons and the University of Detroit before broadcasting ESPN's first college basketball game in 1979. Send a question for Vitale for possible use on ESPNEWS.