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 | | Rookie of the year predictions
 ESPN's Chris Mortensen gives his Rookie of the year prediction.
wav: 203 k
Real: 14.4 | 28.8 | 56.6
2000 NFC Champion
ESPN's Chris Mortensen gives his NFC predictions.
wav: 162 k
Real: 14.4 | 28.8 | 56.6
2000 AFC Champion
ESPN's Chris Mortensen gives his AFC predictions.
wav: 110 k
Real: 14.4 | 28.8 | 56.6
Super Bowl XXXV
ESPN's Chris Mortensen gives his Super Bowl XXXV.
wav: 133 k
Real: 14.4 | 28.8 | 56.6
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Why Titans, Redskins will meet in Tampa
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Nothing should surprise us in 2000. Not after last season. I have not met
one soul who predicted that the St. Louis Rams would win the Super Bowl, or
that some quarterback named Kurt Warner would be the MVP of everything, or
that Dick Vermeil would get the last laugh.
|  | | Steve McNair should lead the Titans to Super Bowl XXXV. |
This much I know, or at least I think I know: Take the Rams, Tampa Bay
Buccaneers and the Washington Redskins in the NFC; take the Indianapolis
Colts and Tennessee Titans in the AFC. Barring any injury-related disasters, you can count on one hand the teams that most assuredly will make the playoffs.
It's fairly easy to make a case for those five teams for the Super Bowl.
But only two will go.
Right now, Tennessee and Washington are my picks. I like the Titans over the Redskins by a very narrow margin in Super Bowl XXXV in Tampa, Fla.
Tennessee is just a very complete, physical team. The Titans are better
than they were a year ago, when they built on a second-place finish in the
AFC Central to advance to the Super Bowl before being tripped up near the
goal line by the Rams. Now, the Titans know they are good.
Eddie George will not rest on his new $42 million contract, or whatever
plentiful amount it is. He will be the league's MVP, even though I believe
Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is the odds-on favorite for that honor going
into the season.
George won't have to do it alone this year. If quarterback Steve McNair
stays healthy, he'll be a Pro Bowl player, thanks to the addition of
ex-Bengals receiver Carl Pickens and a little fine-tuning of the passing game
by new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger.
On defense, the Titans are a little thin. But, as the saying goes, they
punch you in the mouth about as well as any defense in the NFL. They also
have a fellow named Jevon Kearse, who is the NFL's defensive answer to Randy
Moss. Kearse, like Moss, has gifts and skills that many of the NFL brethren
dream about. That's why both Kearse and Moss are often referred to as
"freaks" by their constituents.
The Colts will make another run of it. Manning will get better. I think even
Edgerrin James will get better. But name me one true impact player on defense,
especially in the Indianapolis front seven. Head to head, I think the Titans
still keep that Colts' offense off the field.
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MORT'S TOP FIVE
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"Must" players to start a team
1. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
2. Jevon Kearse, DE, Titans
3. Randy Moss, WR, Vikings
4. Larry Allen, OL, Cowboys
5. Sam Madison, CB, Dolphins
Quarterbacks
1. Peyton Manning, Colts
2. Brett Favre, Packers
3. Kurt Warner, Rams
4. Mark Brunell, Jaguars
5. Troy Aikman, Cowboys
Running backs
1. Edgerrin James, Colts
2. Eddie George, Titans
3. Marshall Faulk, Rams
4. Curtis Martin, Jets
5. Terrell Davis, Broncos
Receivers
1. Randy Moss, Vikings
2. Jimmy Smith, Jaguars
3. Keyshawn Johnson, Bucs
4. Isaac Bruce, Rams
5. Marvin Harrison, Colts
Blockers
1. Larry Allen, Cowboys
2. Tony Boselli, Jaguars
3. Jonathon Ogden, Ravens
4. William Roaf, Saints
5. Orlando Pace, Rams
Cornerbacks
1. Sam Madison, Dolphins
2. Charles Woodson, Raiders
3. Deion Sanders, Redskins
4. Troy Vincent, Eagles
5. Shawn Springs, Seahawks
Linebackers
1. Junior Seau, Chargers
2. Derrick Brooks, Bucs
3. Zach Thomas, Dolphins
4. Ray Lewis, Ravens
5. Chad Brown, Seahawks
Defensive linemen
1. Jevon Kearse, Titans
2. Warren Sapp, Bucs
3. Bryant Young, 49ers
4. Kevin Carter, Rams
5. Trevor Pryce, Broncos
Greatest all-time QBs
1. Joe Montana, 49ers
2. John Unitas, Colts
3. John Elway, Broncos
4. Dan Marino, Dolphins
5. Otto Graham, Browns
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The defending AFC Central champion Jacksonville Jaguars are one of our
mystery teams. Two things have to happen: Fred Taylor has to line up at
running back every Sunday for at least the last eight weeks of the season,
and Tony Boselli must return to all-world form at left tackle. Taylor is the
greater question mark.
The Baltimore Ravens obviously need Tony Banks to break out at
quarterback to meet higher expectations. Their defense, of course, is
first-rate. But to make a Super Bowl run, Banks must get better every week, and
the Ravens' pair of top-10 draft picks, running back Jamal Lewis and wide
receiver Travis Taylor, need to be impact players by midseason.
The New York Jets are another team that bears watching. That has kind of
caught me off-guard because I find it hard to believe that a franchise can
lose its two biggest identities -- Bill Parcells and Keyshawn Johnson -- and
still compete for a playoff spot. But the Jets looked awfully capable in the
preseason.
Why do I always overlook the Buffalo Bills? They were one weird play (or
call) away from removing the Titans from the playoff scene a year ago, and
general manager John Butler's scouting staff does a terrific job of finding
talent. There's just a little something unsettling about the Bills'
quarterback situation -- even if Rob Johnson is the better man (which he
probably is) than Doug Flutie. There's also something unsettling about saying
good-bye to three "franchise" players at once and seeing them in other
uniforms -- Bruce Smith (Redskins), Thurman Thomas (Dolphins) and Andre Reed
(Broncos).
I'm also in the minority about the Miami Dolphins. I think they could
surprise people under Dave Wannstedt, a very underrated coach. The Dolphins'
defense will be the most dominating in Florida -- which means it's better
than the Buccaneers, and better than any other NFL defense. A defense
so dominant means an 8-8 record; if the offense finds a way to win two more
games, the Dolphins will be a playoff team.
Oakland is also due a playoff spot, but in the AFC West I think the
Denver Broncos will rebound to win the division. I'd watch the Broncos really close
as the season progresse. If Terrell Davis comes all the way back, and Brian
Griese settles into his own identity, Broncos coach Mike Shanahan will make
the Colts and Titans uncomfortable.
You want to know the AFC team that a lot of coaches are talking about?
Try the San Diego Chargers. Defensive coordinator Joe Pascale is as good as
any in the business, and Ryan Leaf represents the first big-armed quarterback
in the AFC West since John Elway retired. Wouldn't that be a story?
And then there were three
The NFC is really a three-horse race. I see nobody really pushing the
Rams, Redskins and Buccaneers for their division titles. It won't surprise me
if any of them grab a Super Bowl berth.
The Rams might be the NFL's most underrated team, which is kind of
weird. This is a very talented group of players with an offense that works
beautifully in a domed stadium. The Rams are guaranteed 10 dome games,
counting two on the road in Atlanta and New Orleans.
The key, again, could be home-field advantage, especially where the Rams
are involved.
The neat thing about the NFC race is that the Rams get head-to-head
meetings with the Redskins (Nov. 20 in St. Louis) and the Buccaneers (Dec. 18
in Tampa). They could be critical games that decide home field for the
playoffs.
The Redskins have garnered more attention than any team because owner Dan
Snyder just has a way about him. He opened up his wallet and spent money, and
I think he invested wisely, although there are many people I respect in the
NFL who beg to differ.
Let's don't forget, however, that the Redskins were a pretty good team
last year. They came within a point, losing 14-13 in Tampa, of advancing to
the NFL title. They're a better team and a deeper team. I think Deion Sanders and Bruce Smith are going to surprise people just how much they have left in the tank, especially Deion.
True, everyone's talking about chemistry with the Redskins. It's a
factor. But here's what we need to watch in Washington: The presidential
election is Nov. 7. The Redskins have a bye that week, then play the Rams. If
the man Snyder votes for in the election loses, and the Redskins drop the
game in St. Louis, the Redskins owner might do something silly.
Seriously, the Redskins are bound to hit some adversity. How is Snyder
going to react? Is he going to create a quarterback controversy by pushing
Jeff George when the coach and players want Brad Johnson to lead them?
But if chemistry is a big issue, and pressure plays its role, don't the
Buccaneers bear studying? The Super Bowl is in Tampa this year. Bucs fans
expect their team to be there, on the field. Maybe the quiet owner, Malcolm
Glazer, expects it, too.
The Bucs also have tampered with their chemistry. Sure, they brought in
three Pro Bowl players in Keyshawn Johnson, Randall McDaniel and Jeff Christy,
but their defense also said goodbye to longtime captain Hardy Nickerson, and
most recently to popular Brad Culpepper. If Tony Dungy wasn't the head coach,
this might be a real issue.
The NFC Central is most intriguing. Right now, I'm scratching my head at my
prediction that the Green Bay Packers will finish fourth in the division. How can you pick a team that has Brett Favre, the only established quarterback in the NFC Central, to finish fourth? The defense may be worse than Minnesota's, that's how.
As for the Vikings, maybe preseason can be deceptive, but I think
everything we saw in Daunte Culpepper this summer is real. The talent he
displayed makes me think that Dennis Green (and Bill Walsh) was right --
Culpepper might be the real prize among the quarterback draft of '99. It
doesn't hurt to have Randy Moss and Cris Carter, or a Robert Smith at running
back. But there's that defense, so I don't know. Do you?
The Bears' defense had coach Dick Jauron experiencing a level of
frustration in preseason. But the personnel is better, and offensive
coordinator Gary Crowton's innovations have made a star out of wide receiver
Marcus Robinson. A lot of people are pushing the Bears as this year's Rams
and Falcons. But the thing about the Rams and Falcons in their Super Bowl
quests the past two years is that nobody was talking about those teams in the
preseason the way people are talking about the Bears.
Of all the teams in the NFC most capable of surprising the Big Three
(Rams, Redskins and Bucs), I think the Detroit Lions are capable, especially
if Charlie Batch and James Stewart are in the same backfield for 16 games.
But the Lions are just one of the teams that the injury bug seems to bite
every year. If they shake that bug, watch out because the Detroit offense has
a chance to be pretty powerful.
The NFC West is still fairly soft, despite having the past two NFC
champions. I thought the Carolina Panthers would be a playoff team, but
injuries have been unkind, and the injury history of running back Tshimanga
Biakabutuka is not a good one. He's a 1,500-yard back if he's durable, and
the Panthers could go to the playoffs, but that's a chancy thing.
This could be Dan Reeves' last year of coaching in the NFL. The way
the Atlanta Falcons went about business in training camp tells you that
Reeves will not go out embarrassed the way he was last season. Jamal Anderson
has to make a big comeback, though, for it to happen.
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