Oct. 29
You may never have seen my 2003 predictions in print because my dog ate them. If you watched television, then you at least heard some portions of them spill from my mouth via my sometimes feeble mind.

So, for the record in print, I chose the St. Louis Rams and Tennessee Titans as my Super Bowl picks on "NFL Monday Countdown." Three days later, after the Buffalo Bills acquired Lawyer Milloy, I offered the Bills as the AFC champion.

Your first instincts are usually the best.

I offer up my preseason forecasts now so they can be compared with my revised forecasts. I have a little surprise ending, written specifically for a made-for-ESPN movie. Here you go:

NFC East
NFC East preseason
1. New York Giants
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

Midseason Analysis
The Cowboys, obviously, are the big surprise. Coach Bill Parcells already has duplicated the five wins posted in each of the previous three seasons. They have beaten the Giants and Eagles, with the Redskins up next. They are excellent on defense and they manage on offense around their receivers. It's a tough schedule ahead, but they already have managed a couple of upsets. Parcells usually finishes strong. Nevertheless, the Giants and Eagles remain the teams to beat in my eyes. Coach Jim Fassel's G-men traditionally are fast finishers, but you do wonder how many times they can go to the well. And how many special-teams snafus is one franchise allowed? As for the Eagles, coach Andy Reid's steady hand during Donovan McNabb's stunningly poor start -- not to mention a rash of injuries on defense -- will prove to pay dividends. The Redskins are in trouble.

NFC East revised forecast
1. Eagles
2. Cowboys (wild card)
3. Giants
4. Redskins

NFC North
NFC North preseason
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detroit Lions

Midseason Analysis
The Packers continue to lose their Lambeau Field magic. They lost to the Vikings and Chiefs at home; they had the Chiefs pinned with what appeared to be a sure victory only to blow it. Throw in a loss to the Rams on the road and the picture you get of the Packers is that they can win the marginal games but they can't beat the good teams in this league. If QB Brett Favre's thumb is not a seasonlong issue, they cannot be dismissed, as long as RB Ahman Green limits his fumbles. The key to this division race probably comes Sunday night (ESPN, 8:30 ET) when the Packers meet the Vikings in the Metrodome, usually a house of horrors. If the Pack can somehow pull off a win, they get to .500, and Minnesota may start doubting itself with a second straight loss. However, I like how coach Mike Tice handles his Vikings. He's got QB Daunte Culpepper and WR Randy Moss playing at the top of their games, and defensive coordinator George O'Leary has built an opportunistic unit to cover some flaws. Also, RB Michael Bennett is back and could give Minnesota a nice pick-me-up. As for the Bears, I think coach Dick Jauron is doing as well as he possibly can, although there seems no doubt he is in his final season. The Lions? Well, coach Steve Mariucci has a $5 million salary to deal with the shock of what he inherited.

NFC North revised forecast
1. Vikings
2. Packers
3. Bears
4. Lions

NFC South
NFC South preseason
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Carolina Panthers

Midseason Analysis
The Bucs are fighting for their lives. But here's what I know: coach Jon Gruden's group will fight. When you have a head coach and defensive coordinator (Monte Kiffin) -- along with players like LB Derrick Brooks, DT Warren Sapp, S John Lynch and QB Brad Johnson who are so passionate about the game -- then you will not see them fold. Still, the Panthers have caught me totally off guard. I knew RB Stephen Davis might have been the biggest offseason pickup in the NFL, but I thought coach John Fox overachieved last year with a 7-9 record. I saw the Panthers 8-8 at best, maybe even 7-9 again. Their win Sunday over the Saints was huge. They know their identity. They play to it. Circle Nov. 9 on the your calendar, when the Bucs travel to Carolina. The winner of that game figures to win the division. Then again, I also can see this coming down to Dec. 28, with the Bucs needing to win in Tennessee while the Panthers end the season in New York against the Giants. Beating the Titans in Tennessee is a tall order for anyone. Meanwhile, the Saints still can have a say in this race. They have two games remaining against the Bucs (starting Sunday), a team they swept twice last year. But they blow too many games. In Atlanta, I fully expected backup QB Doug Johnson to keep the Falcons competitive until Michael Vick returned, along with a defense that was solid a year ago. Ha! Johnson didn't answer the bell, Vick has been slow in coming back, and the defense has fallen apart.

NFC South revised forecast
1. Panthers
2. Bucs (wild card)
3. Saints
4. Falcons

NFC West
NFC West preseason
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals

Midseason Analysis
When the Rams opened the season with that disastrous loss to the Giants that opened another scab in Warner-gate, I thought I had totally misread them. Turns out, they're pretty good. In fact, they are playing as well as anyone in the league, and much of the credit goes to coach Mike Martz, who stopped the bleeding with Warner by going with backup Marc Bulger as his new QB. The offense is still as good as any in the league, and defensive coordinator Lovie Smith has done a great job with some young players. You also are hearing, for the first time, that the Rams are a lot "nastier" than anyone remembers them. The Seahawks have had a nice first half, but their second half schedule includes road stops in Baltimore, Minnesota and St. Louis (not to mention Washington and San Francisco). They will have earned a playoff berth if they survive. The 49ers blew their chance in Arizona. Injuries and the kicking game have doomed their season. The Cardinals have coach David McGinnis. That's a good thing. But even though they can spoil things now and then (they beat the Packers and 49ers), they are still the Cards.

NFC West revised forecast
1. Rams
2. Seahawks
3. 49ers
4. Cardinals

AFC East
AFC East preseason
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Miami Dolphins
3. New England Patriots
4. New York Jets

Midseason Analysis
The only thing the Bills have done to prove me right was trouncing the Patriots in the opener -- and I have long maintained that the first game of the season can be the most misleading. The Bills have plenty of talent, but anyone who watched them look thoroughly overmatched in Kansas City on Sunday night must concede that they're something missing in Buffalo. Coach Gregg Williams will need at least a strong second half to survive. The Dolphins, I thought, were overrated. However, I like most of what I see, and I think if QB Brian Griese can build on his first start Monday night, then they will be in the Super Bowl mix. The Patriots ... wow. Coach Bill Belichick is amazing. New England is 6-2 after overcoming a disastrous start in Buffalo and numerous key injuries. Then the Pats beat the Dolphins in Miami. They finish with three of four games at home in December. What happens if these guys get healthy and the young players keep getting better? Maybe Belichick repeats as AFC champion. The Jets will get a spark from the return of QB Chad Pennington (from injury) once he settles in, but they have looked old and slow at times and I don't see it happening.

AFC East revised forecast
1. Patriots
2. Dolphins (wild card)
3. Bills
4. Jets

AFC North
AFC North preseason
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Cincinnati Bengals

Midseason Analysis
Remember what I said about the season openers? When the Steelers took apart the Ravens in the first game, I must admit I thought I was an idiot for taking the Ravens with a rookie QB in Kyle Boller. I may not be an idiot. Brian Billick is a terrific head coach. He has detractors because he's so, well, arrogant. But Billick gets it. Boller is starting to play better. RB Jamal Lewis is an MVP candidate, if you can justify picking him over LB Ray Lewis, the best player in football. Mike Nolan is doing a great job as defensive coordinator. The Steelers came into this season with two major question marks: Was QB Tommy Maddox for real? Has their pass defense gotten better? Now they are 2-5 and have added a third and fourth question: What happened to their running game? Is coach Bill Cowher going to be held accountable? Maddox obviously is not good enough to overcome offensive line injuries and a nonexistent running game. Cowher got management to spend a lot of money in retaining his players. Will they return the favor? The Browns O-line and QB injuries have led to a disappointing first half. The Bengals ... ah, the Bengals. If coach Marvin Lewis can keep the team from succumbing a tough road schedule (including three in a row), the Bengals might be very interesting. They're already interesting.

AFC North revised forecast
1. Ravens
2. Bengals
3. Steelers
4. Browns

AFC South
AFC South preseason
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Midseason Analysis
Even though I like the Colts as a playoff team, I thought the most stunning result of the first half was Indianapolis' 33-7 domination of the Titans in week two, which is why Colts QB Peyton Manning still gets a slight nod over Titans QB Steve McNair as an MVP candidate. The rematch is Dec. 7 in Tennessee. The Titans cannot afford many more injuries. Both teams appear to have manageable schedules in the second half, so their second divisional game is obviously key. If RB Edgerrin James stays healthy down the stretch, the Colts' offense may be too tough to handle. The Texans are improved and could give the Colts a scare in the regular-season finale in Houston. The Jaguars have been competitive for a losing team, but rookie QB Byron Leftwich is finding out the NFL is a big step up from college.

AFC South revised forecast
1. Colts
2. Titans (wild card)
3. Texans
4. Jaguars

AFC West
AFC West preseason
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Denver Broncos
4. San Diego Chargers

Midseason Analysis
I really did like the Chiefs to win the West. I didn't know they would be 8-0 at the break. They actually failed to hit on all cylinders in many games, but kick returner Dante Hall saved them. Now it appears QB Trent Green and the offense are on track, which makes the Chiefs dangerous -- even though I still wonder about a defense that has been opportunistic. The Raiders are a bigger mess than I anticipated. I do believe they were due for a Super Bowl hangover after their disappointing loss to the Bucs. I even fought against the argument that the Raiders are old. Well, they're looking old. The Broncos are better than I expected. But major injuries to QB Jake Plummer and LB Ian Gold caused a stall. If they can somehow beat the Patriots on Monday night to go 6-3 before their bye, Plummer's return could spark 'em. The key will be December when the Broncos play the Chiefs at home, then finish with two road games against the Colts and Packers. I didn't think the Chargers would contend this year, but they are worse off than anybody imagined, including coach Marty Schottenheimer.

AFC West revised forecast
1. Chiefs
2. Broncos
3. Raiders
4. Chargers

NFC playoff predictions
NFC playoff preseason forecast
Wild Card round -- Packers over Eagles (wc); Giants over Falcons (wc)
Divisional round -- Bucs over Giants; Rams over Packers
Championship round -- Rams over Bucs

Revised NFC playoff forecast
Wild Card round -- Eagles over Cowboys (wc); Bucs (wc) over Panthers Divisional round -- Rams over Bucs; Vikings over Eagles
Championship round -- Rams over Vikings

AFC playoff predictions
AFC playoff preseason forecast
Wild Card round -- Colts (wc) over Chiefs; Dolphins (wc) over Ravens Divisional round -- Titans over Colts; Bills over Dolphins
Championship round -- Titans over Bills

Revised AFC playoff forecast
Wild Card round -- Dolphins (wc) over Ravens; Titans (wc) over Patriots Divisional round -- Colts over Dolphins; Chiefs over Titans
Championship round -- Chiefs over Colts

Super Bowl forecast
Super Bowl preseason -- Titans over Rams
Super Bowl revised -- Rams over Chiefs