Sept. 23
I have a theory about the Oakland Raiders, who fell to 1-2 after a 31-10 loss to the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Last season, Jon Gruden made them and ruined them. The Raiders came together as a team to prove they were bigger than their former coach -- who in their minds deserted them -- and thus conquered the AFC in 2002. But Gruden exposed their tendencies and sent them into a funk when the Buccaneers crushed Oakland in the Super Bowl. It's early and this is only a theory, but the Raiders may be in trouble.

As for my Super Bowl picks after Week 3, we have a change. The Chiefs have found too many ways to hurt opponents. So it's the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers for now. Here's what I have for Week 3's top-five action:

Best Games
1. Seahawks 24, Rams 23 -- Down 23-10 after three quarters, the Seahawks pulled it out and actually had you watching to make sure the PAT was good.
2. Giants 23, Redskins 20 (OT) -- In a near reversal of last Monday night's debacle in losing to the Cowboys, the Giants blew a 21-3 halftime lead only to do what all good overtime teams do -- win the coin toss.
3. Browns 13, 49ers 12 -- Actually, it was a painful game to watch, but the Browns hung around and averted a 0-3 start.
4. Cardinals 20, Packers 13 -- So Brett Favre is driving and a largely predominant Cheesehead crowd in Arizona is cheering...and the Cardinals hold on? Really, pretty good drama.
5. Dolphins 17, Bills 7 -- So many weird plays, so many mistakes, but plenty of Ricky Williams.

Most Impressive in Victory
1. Broncos 31, Raiders 10 -- If Clinton Portis had been healthy, who knows how bad this would have been Monday night.
2. Dolphins 17, Bills 7 -- If defense wins championships, then the Dolphins indeed made a statement by throwing a blanket on Drew Bledsoe & Co.
3. Chiefs 42, Texans 14 -- Tell the truth: You sensed a possible upset, right? The Chiefs established themselves as an early AFC favorite by dominating in Houston.
4. Bucs 31, Falcons 10 -- The defending champs toyed with Falcons and had fun doing it.
5a. Titans 27, Saints 12 -- Titans coach Jeff Fisher made losing to the Colts the week before very uncomfortable for his players, and they took it out on a mysteriously suspect Saints team.
5b. Vikings 23, Lions 13 -- Vikings coach Mike Tice said he was disgusted after watching the game tape, but the Vikings overcame a 10-0 lead, the loss of QB Daunte Culpepper and a road game against a division opponent to take an early commanding lead in the NFC North.

Best Performance: Quarterback
1. Jeff Blake, Cardinals -- Yeah, you read it right. Every time I looked up, Blake was throwing a perfect spiral to one of his rookie WRs, Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson, as he out-dueled Brett Favre.
2. Jake Plummer, Broncos -- In a true test against the Raiders, Plummer produced three TDs, two passing and one running. He can thank Mike Shanahan for making it look easy.
3. Steve McNair, Titans -- This may sound familiar, but this time the guy wore a hinged brace on his dislocated ring finger (throwing hand) and still passed for 252 yards and two TDs.
4. Kerry Collins, Giants -- He threw for three TDs, zero picks, and is pretty much the most underrated quarterback in the NFL.
5a. Brad Johnson, Bucs -- The next most underrated QB made it look too easy in Atlanta.
5b. Patrick Ramsey, Redskins -- Once again, he showed resiliency in bring the Redskins back in a 348-yard passing day.

Best Performance: Running Back
1. Ricky Williams, Dolphins -- You had to hang around to appreciate his night's work -- 42 carries, 153 yards and a late TD.
2. Priest Holmes, Chiefs -- Ho-hum, 22 touches for 156 yards and two TDs.
3. Jamal Lewis, Ravens -- He was in San Diego, so it might as well have been a day at the beach - 132 yards on 23 rushes.
4. Fred Taylor, Jaguars -- Just because his team seems invisible, it doesn't mean you can't recognize great work vs. the Colts (17-for-126 yards).
5. Michael Pittman, Bucs -- He had a Priest Holmes-like day with 82 yards rushing and 82 yards receiving, including a 68-yard catch-and-run for a big TD.

Best Performance: Wide Receiver
1. Reggie Wayne, Colts -- Finally, a first-round day for a former first-round pick - he caught 10 of Peyton Manning's passes for 142 yards and two TDs.
2. Marvin Harrison, Colts -- True, he had only four catches for 31 yards, but why do you think Wayne had a breakout game? Harrison's presence attracted all the attention from the Jags.
3. Andre Davis, Browns -- He caught both TD passes in the fourth quarter, including an outstretched grab from Kelly Holcomb to give the Browns a desperation victory over the 49ers.
4. Kevin Johnson, Browns -- Even though Davis got the glory, Johnson did the dirty work on Cleveland's 91-yard winning drive by catching six passes, many of them over the middle.
5a. Ashley Lelie, Broncos -- Even though he ran wide open against some busted Oakland coverages, the former Hawaii star delivered with three catches covering 108 yards and one TD.
5b. Andre Johnson, Texans -- The draft's No. 3 pick overall is looking like the real deal, this time scoring twice against the Chiefs on seven catches and 102 yards.
5c. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals -- Even with a fumble, the second-round pick again (5-for-99 yards) did damage.

Better Than Advertised (Team)
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Denver Broncos
5. Kansas City Chiefs

Better Than Advertised (Quarterback) *
1. Patrick Ramsey
2. Quincy Carter
3. Matt Hasselbeck
4. Jeff Blake
5. Mark Brunell
* Based on expectations

Most Disappointing (Team)
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Oakland Raiders
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Green Bay Packers
5. San Diego Chargers

Most Disappointing (Quarterback)
1. Donovan McNabb
2. Kurt Warner
3. Drew Brees
4. Rich Gannon
5. Brett Favre

Good Ideas
1. Ravens Fly Coop -- Baltimore coach Brian Billick made the right call when he had the Ravens leave town Wednesday afternoon for San Diego. Hurricane Isabel closed down the Baltimore airport the next day and power was lost at team facility.
2. Billick suspends McAlister -- Two-for-two, Billick did not hesitate to suspend cornerback Chris McAlister, who broke curfew and missed a morning meeting.
3. Davis sticks with Holcomb -- Surely, you expected to see Tim Couch in the second half Sunday while Kelly Holcomb put zeroes up on the board. But Browns coach Butch Davis, who had counseled Holcomb early in the week to "shoot for pars, not birdies," watched Holcomb deliver two scoring drives in the fourth quarter for a big 14-13 win in San Francisco.
4. Seahawks' limo service -- With Shaun Alexander's wife in labor, the Seahawks had a car waiting for the running back at the hospital. A baby daughter, named Heaven, was delivered and Alexander was soon headed for the stadium, able to contribute to the team's huge 24-23 victory over the Rams.
5. Thugs R Us -- That's what Titans coach Jeff Fisher disgustedly labeled his team at halftime during its Week 2 defeat to the Colts. Then he treated them like thugs in practice and watched them beat up the Saints at home on Sunday.

Bad Ideas
1. Rod Smith's Monday night boxing debut -- The Broncos Pro Bowl wideout took a swing at a Raider and ended up landing the haymaker to umpire Undrey Walsh. That was an automatic ejection in the second quarter. Luckily for the Broncos, the Raiders were already dazed.
2. McAlister's message -- Just prior to boarding a bus for the Baltimore airport, McAlister mugged it up for a TV camera, claiming the early trip to San Diego would be no vacation, only business. Yeah, funny business, Billick busted McAlister.
3. Seabass' fishy tale, Part V -- Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski, already in trouble on various fronts with the law and the league, was arrested for his role in an altercation outside a California bar Saturday night. Police said he was intoxicated. Really? Raiders say Seabass will be vindicated. Really?
4. Trick plays by Bills and Jets -- Maybe it's the AFC East water. The Jets attempted a fake field goal, but had their holder/punter (Dan Stryzinski) passing to a center (Kevin Mawae) with predictable results (incomplete). For the Bills, a halfback option pass by Travis Henry that was botched in execution and resulted in an Miami interception at the 1. Remember the rule: It better work.
5. Bengals' grass -- No, they're not smoking it. But here it is, early in the season, and already the team's grass field is a joke. Ask Corey Dillon, who went to the sidelines after aggravating a groin injury when he dug a divot making a cut. Why hasn't the NFL imposed its will here?

Why The Jets Are 0-3
1. Chad Pennington's out -- It was going to be a steeper hill to climb anyway, but Pennington's preseason injury may cost them four wins by the time he comes back.
2. Laveranues Coles is a Redskin -- I watched Curtis Conway drop three balls Sunday. I watched Coles enjoy a third straight 100-yard day. This one will hurt even more as time moves on and Coles becomes a Pro Bowl regular.
3. Chad Morton's a Redskin, too -- The Jets have one of the best special teams coaches in the NFL in Mike Westhoff, but even great design and execution needs a rocket booster. Field position would aid their cause.
4. Curtis Martin's legs -- They're too fresh. It's hard to evaluate whether Martin has lost a step because the Jets don't run the ball enough. Of 32 teams that have played three games, the Jets are 31st in rushing attempts (50). Only the Raiders are lower (46). But the Jets are dead last in average rushing yards per game -- just 47.7. Please note that teams that have rushed for 30-plus times have won 31 of 33 games this season.
5. Can't stop the run, either -- Nope. The Jets are 31st stopping the rush, allowing an average of 164.7 yards per game. There's a message in there somewhere.

Best Games: Week 4
1. Tennessee at Pittsburgh -- An old rock-'em, sock-'em rematch. Did Eddie George and Jerome Bettis really recapture their youth?
2. Philadelphia at Buffalo -- Surely, the Eagles solved some issues during the bye while the Bills raised some in defeat.
3. New England at Washington -- The Patriots head to the nation's capital with walking wounded.
4. Atlanta at Carolina -- The Falcons are desperate and matched up well last year in sweeping the Panthers. But Atlanta had Mike Vick then, and Carolina didn't have Stephen Davis.
5. San Francisco at Minnesota -- The 49ers are too good to start 1-3 and the unbeaten Vikings might be ripe.