Odds on a fight are as good an indicator as any of how close a match is. Therefore I was stunned to read that David Tua is listed as roughly a 2-1 favorite versus Michael Moorer. 2-1? Those were the odds for De La Hoya-Mosley, and generally the sign of a barnburner, competitive fight. But then you realize that it's two guys known for taking rounds, and even fights off, and that anything could happen accordingly.

Both men have provided a dual bill of excitement and frustration in their careers. With Moorer, he burst on the scene in the early '90s with vicious stoppages of a spate of light heavyweights before moving up and crushing Alex Stewart and Bert Cooper. Hurt early in both of his high-profile heavyweight bouts, something in Moorer awakened and rescued him in both cases. But that's the last time the fire was apparent.

Since then, all you need to do is look at Teddy Atlas' between-rounds speeches to Moorer to wonder what happened. Who can forget his first bout with Holyfield, where Atlas screamed at him with a motivational fervor that was far more exciting than the bout? Moorer sort of stumbled upon the title that night, and promptly lost it to George Foreman on one punch. He didn't have time to recover and fall back on the fire that made him such a fun fighter to watch. He had, indeed, fallen prey to physics and size.

A huge light heavyweight, Moorer's moderate-at-best heavyweight frame, often subject to weight problems, which reduced his hand speed and output, seemed to psychologically limit him. Even a second title run yielded little to cheer about. After decisioning Axel Schulz to win the vacant IBF belt, Moorer did his sleepwalking thing again versus Francois Botha, finally stopping the game but terribly outgunned challenger in the 12th round. You got the feeling that Atlas, gone livid in the corner for his charge's lack of passion for the task at hand, might have finished the job sooner.

He lost the title to Holyfield in a brutal rematch, floored five times and summarily finished, it seemed, as a top contender in 1997. After ballooning up to a reported 275 pounds, and having a drinking problem, Moorer seemed finished. But he returned in 2000 and has since fought five times, with four victories and a no-contest against journeyman comp. And now, with time running preciously low, it's time for the jump. Moorer has to make his move, and he's in against David Tua, a guy who fights a lot like Moorer used to. Is it too much too soon to go from the club fight circuit against a guy like Tua?

Depending on how Tua fights, maybe or maybe not. For if there's anybody in the current crop of heavyweights that reminds you of a younger Moorer, it's Tua. Prone to taking rounds off, ballooning up in weight, and giving fights away through inexplicable passivity, Tua is as good a match as anybody. His weight, a constant struggle, is perhaps focused on too much. Yeah, we'll probably never see him below 230 again, but he also owns the best chin in the division and is going to be there for the duration of any bout.

The fancy-Dan types like Byrd, Oquendo, and Lewis can fall back and outbox him, but is Moorer the guy to do it? More importantly, will Tua fall back on his old habits and let Moorer do it? Will Moorer be willing to? A weird question. What happens in a round where both guys take it off?

Regardless of his pugilistic shortcomings, Tua is still the ONLY guy in the division who is proven to take a great shot and give one. Tyson, yes, can take a shot, but he didn't land many vs. Lewis. All in all it makes for a compelling matchup.

Here's thinking Tua wins it somewhat later than he should.

Quick Shots:

Glad to see Micky Ward and Arturo Gatti hooking it up again for $1.25 million each. Forget about challenging Kostya Tszyu, this is the most entertaining matchup in the division, and perhaps the fight game itself.

Weird to see Zab Judah considering getting hooked up with Don King. After hearing that you wonder how good of friends Zab is with Mike Tyson, and how much do they actually talk?

Just because I can: "Panama" Al Brown.