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Friday, December 13, 2002
2001: An early Top 10
By Mike Diegnan
BCSfootball.com
The BCS hits the Granddaddy of them all next season, as the Rose Bowl hosts the national championship. Who will be in Pasadena in January? Who knows, but here's a very early Top 10 for 2001.
As we found out this year, projections are bound to go haywire -- take a look at Nebraska playing in the Alamo Bowl, Mike DuBose picking up unemployment, and Oklahoma facing Florida State for the championship.
1. Florida
The quarterback controversy should be over in Gainesville. Steve Spurrier -- now with his rich extension -- should be happy to let loose his fun-and-gun offense with the Grossman-Gaffney connection for years to come, although Brock Berlin may get a shot.
Defensively, the Gators should only get better. The team's top 11 tacklers this season should all be back, including All-American cornerback Lito Sheppard and intimidating defensive end Alex Brown.
And the schedule is promising -- Tennessee and Florida State head to the Swamp.
Which leaves one to wonder -- if he's getting $2.1 million per year and has his team poised for a championship run, why would Spurrier think about coaching the Redskins and meddlesome owner Daniel Snyder.
2. Texas
Before the season, Mack Brown said his team was a year away from competing for the national championship. Indeed, if the past month is a preview, then the Big XII should be ready for another powerhouse team.
|  | | Chris Simms enters the 2001 season as Texas' starting QB. |
Since their disaster in the Red River Shootout, there is no doubt that the Longhorns are primed for a run. Against Texas A&M, Chris Simms showed that he may be better than his All-Pro father. If that's the case, Simms and his immensely talented young receivers are looking at big-time games. Yes, Major Applewhite is still in the picture, but Simms' effort against the Aggies showed that Applewhite is not the team's leader anymore.
Defensively, the Longhorns will have to replace two-time All-American Casey Hampton on the line, but Cory Redding should have a breakout year at end. Redding led the team in sacks this season and is second to Hampton in tackles-for-loss.
Next year's Red River Shootout could be the game of the year. It won't be a replay of the 63-14 drubbing Oklahoma gave Texas this year, that's for sure. For the Longhorns, it is their lone test during the regular season. This season, Texas ranked 84th in schedule strength, and it could be a similar story next year with non-league games against North Carolina, Houston and New Mexico State. Within the Big XII, Texas' only toughies are with Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
Mack Brown received a hefty raise this week. Now it's time for him to make good on it.
3. Miami
Miami no longer has issues with probation, but the Hurricanes will have to figure out how to replace its receiving duo of Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss next fall. The star receivers are gone, as is running back James Jackson, but the 'Canes should have no problem contending for the national title again.
Clinton Portis should assume control of the ground game and fullback D.J. Williams will be a major threat out of the backfield -- unless he returns to linebacker -- and 6-foot-9, 330-pound tackle Bryant McKinnie should make a run at several postseason awards.
Miami also needs to replace Butkus Award winner Dan Morgan, but the Hurricanes should be fine with Howard Clark and Chris Campbell in the lineup. In the secondary, All-American Ed Reed will again lead a talented group.
Being an odd year, Miami will go on the road for its three toughest games -- Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Penn State. Butch Davis' team should be able to win two, at worst. With McNeese State no longer on the calendar, Miami should not face the same issues with the BCS computers, and compete for a trip to Pasadena.
4. Tennessee
It was supposed to be a rebuilding year in Knoxville this season. Indeed, the Vols battled through a quarterback battle for most of the season and started 2-3.
In the sixth game, Casey Clausen got the starting nod over A.J. Suggs and Joey Matthews, and the Volunteers never looked back, winning all six of his starts, including routs of Arkansas and Kentucky that displayed Clausen's immense talent. Clausen loses Travis Henry in the backfield, but Travis Stephens should have a big season as the go-to guy.
The biggest news in Knoxville, though, is the return of John Henderson. The Outland Trophy winner is going to return for his senior to terrorize SEC teams one more year. He and end Will Overstreet will combine to form one of the nation's top lines. The secondary should be prepared for the Vols' early season trip to the Swamp.
5. Florida State
If the ACC is to catch up to Florida State, 2001 is its best shot. The Seminoles lose Chris Weinke, Travis Minor, Marvin Minnis, and four-fifths of the offensive line. Same deal on the other side of the ball, as Jamal Reynolds, Tay Cody, Brian Allen and the majority of the defense is headed to the pros.
Florida State has finished in the top four in each of the past 14 years for a reason, but it will be a major project for the 'Noles to return to the championship game for a fourth consecutive year. Redshirt freshman Chris Rix should get a shot at becoming FSU's next great quarterback and the California native will have plenty of options, as Anquan Boldin and Atrews Bell challenge for his throws.
Miami returns to Tallahassee in '01, but the Seminoles' biggest task may be a trip to Gainesville. Bobby Bowden has had Florida's number in recent years, but that string may get chomped in the Swamp.
6. Oklahoma
Oklahoma's amazing rise to the top this season shouldn't be a one-hit wonder, but the Sooners face many obstacles in duplicating their perfection.
First of all, the Sooners will lose Josh Heupel. While Weinke was deserving of the Heisman, no quarterback may have meant more to his team than Heupel. It goes beyond the numbers -- his leadership in the final weeks is the reason why the Sooners are playing Florida State in the FedEx Orange Bowl.
More importantly, J.T. Thatcher and Torrance Marshall are both headed to big paydays in the NFL next season, while Rocky Calmus will have a decision to make between another year in Norman or a date with the professionals. When Heupel and the Sooners struggled offensively, the OU defense held firm against Oklahoma State, and Marshall's pick won the game against Texas A&M.
Plus, the schedule won't be kind to OU. Texas won't play like a patsy in the Red River Shootout and a trip to Lincoln should be interesting. Will OU face the sophomore jinx? The expectations are going to skyrocket, and the Sooners struggled when they became the No. 1 team in the country this season. Without Heupel, it seems hard to fathom that OU can remain No. 1, but we learned this year not to count out Bob Stoops' team.
7. Virginia Tech
The Hokies may have been spurned for a BCS bowl this December, but Michael Vick says he is returning for another season in Blacksburg. If he does, the Hokies are legitimate contenders for the national championship.
For starters, the schedule is favorable -- Miami makes the trip north and no non-league game should muster a serious threat for the Hokies (a schedule which includes UConn). Secondly, Vick is a one-man highlight show. Thirdly, Lee Suggs is a scoring machine.
Two questions stand in the way however. Can Vick improve his passing? This season, he threw just eight touchdown passes, and overall, he turned the ball over 12 times, while accounting for just 16 touchdowns.
But will Vick even have time to improve on his throws? The Secret Service is folding. Josh Redding and the rest of the offensive line are headed elsewhere. The Hokies had a hard enough time this year with its offensive line -- it would be a major task to ask the line to provide ample time.
8. Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech is lucky the BCA Bowl with Georgia Tech was never rescheduled, because it might have ended any doubt as to whether the Hokies deserved to play in a BCS bowl. The Yellow Jackets won their final seven games this season and have a keeper in quarterback George Godsey.
|  | | The key date for George Godsey and the Yellow Jackets is Sept. 15 when they travel to Tallahassee. |
All of a sudden, Godsey is being counted as a possible Heisman contender in 2001. However, the Yellow Jackets were dealt a blow when offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen took the head job at Maryland.
Defense was the key to Ga. Tech's winning streak, however. The core will return to Atlanta, led by bookends Greg Gathers and Nick Rogers, who combined for 22 sacks this season.
How good this team is will be known in Week 3. After opening with The Citadel and Navy, the Yellow Jackets head to Tallahassee.
9. Nebraska
It feels like he has been running Nebraska's offense since the Reagan administration, but Eric Crouch has one more chance to get the Husker option running with the same efficiency as Tommie Frazier and Scott Frost.
A trip to the Alamo Bowl is not one Nebraska fans plan to make on an annual basis. Instead, Crouch must revive an offense that led the nation in rushing, but had a virtually nonexistent passing game, mustering little against Oklahoma and Kansas State.
Defensively, the Huskers will still be solid, but the Blackshirts need to regain its previous swagger after allowing an average of 27.3 points over the final four games.
The schedule is favorable for a run by the Huskers. The three main targets on the calendar are all headed to Lincoln -- Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Kansas State.
10. Oregon
The Ducks also have a favorable schedule, but can you really predict anything in the Pac-10? Oregon doesn't face Washington in 2001, and Oregon State will make the trip to Eugene, giving the Ducks an edge on the competition.
Oregon should have no problem in the scoring department. Joey Harrington, who tied a school record with six TD passes against Arizona State, will be back for his senior season, and he'll have Maurice Morris in the backfield as well. But the UO defense could have trouble keeping opponents at bay. Four of the team's top five tacklers are all headed for greener pastures and Zack Freiter will be the only returnee on the line.
Of course, we learned in 2000 that teams can come from nowhere to compete (Oklahoma, Oregon State) or disappear into oblivion (USC, Alabama). Thus, there are a few more teams to keep an eye on.
No. 11 Northwestern: The Wildcats won't surprise anyone in '01, but get a break with a schedule that doesn't include Michigan or Wisconsin.
No. 12 Michigan: Drew Henson and David Terrell could be the nation's best QB-receiver tandem, but the Wolverines must overcome the losses of Anthony Thomas, the entire offensive line, and a defense that looked helpless against Northwestern and Purdue.
No. 13 Oregon State: Ken Simonton vows he will win the Heisman in 2001, but the stud running back will have to do it on a team that loses at least 13 starters.
No. 14 Notre Dame: Bob Davie has another killer stretch at the beginning of the season: at Nebraska, at Purdue, Michigan State and at Texas A&M. Survive that, and the Irish still have games with USC and Tennessee.
No. 15 Wisconsin: The defense hinges on a Jamar Fletcher's return. The offense needs another big year from Michael Bennett and solid numbers from Brooks Bollinger.
K-State fans: Before you begin to complain and proclaim Ell Roberson as a Heisman candidate, remember it's an odd year, and the Wildcats will be on the road at Lincoln and Norman.
Mike Diegnan is the editor of BCSfootball.com.
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